A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
